Thursday, February 21, 2013

Rookie Top-Nine Forwards and Top-Four Defensemen on Playoff Teams, Since 2005-06


T.J. Galiardi, Matt Duchene, and Ryan O'Reilly

Here’s a self-compiled list of rookie skaters who played top-nine forward ATOI (Average Time on Ice) or top-four defenseman ATOI on playoff teams since 2005-06.

Interesting conclusions drawn:

  • Since 2005-06, only two teams have made the playoffs with three or more rookie skaters among their top-nine ATOI (Average Time on Ice) forwards and top-four ATOI defensemen: The 2009-10 Colorado Avalanche and the 2006-07 San Jose Sharks.  That's two teams in 112 playoff squads over the last seven years, which includes a 2005-06 season stacked with talented newcomers. 
  • Unbelievably, the 2009-10 Colorado Avalanche featured a group of top-nine forwards that was nearly half-made up of freshmen: T.J. Galiardi, Matt Duchene, Ryan O’Reilly, and Brandon Yip.  The 2006-07 San Jose Sharks debuted forwards Joe Pavelski and Ryane Clowe, along with defenseman Marc-Edouard Vlasic.
  • Only three rookie forwards and three rookie defensemen made a playoff team’s top-three forward ATOI or top-two defensemen ATOI.  Shockingly, T.J. Galiardi is one of those forwards, along with Nicklas Backstrom and Evgeni Malkin.  Tyler Myers is the only rookie who topped his team’s positional ATOI, while Marc-Edouard Vlasic and Francois Beauchemin were the other defensemen.
  • For forwards, even the top-six is tough to crack.  Of the 46 rookie forwards who made this list, only 16 were entrusted with top-six ATOI. 
  • There are 15 defensemen on this list; three finished with top-two minutes.  No playoff team has made it work with two rookie d-men in their top-four in the last seven seasons.
  • The research backs up the idea that defense is the toughest position for high-leverage minutes as a rookie.  This even includes goaltenders.
  • Brad Marchand, David Krejci, Karl Alzner, and Travis Zajac show the limitations of just using ATOI.  By the end of their rookie seasons, they were logging high-leverage minutes, but narrowly missed their team’s top-nine or top-four lists.  Marchand and Krejci took the minutes of Marc Savard and Patrice Bergeron, respectively, as both were out with season-ending injuries but had logged high ATOI when healthy.  Zajac and Alzner were out by technicality, surpassed by David Clarkson and Sami Lepisto, who both got cups of coffee with the big club.


Without further ado:

  • Playoff Teams (in order of finish), 2005-06 to 2011-12
  • Rookie Skaters (with at least 25 GP) Among Their Top-Nine ATOI Forwards and Top-Four ATOI Defensemen
  • Rookie Starting Goalies


2011-12

Eastern Conference
Forwards (ATOI rank)
Defensemen (ATOI rank)
Goalies
NY Rangers
Carl Hagelin (8)


Boston



Florida



Pittsburgh



Philadelphia
Matt Read (4)


New Jersey
Adam Henrique (5)
Adam Larsson (3)

Washington



Ottawa
Colin Greening (5)
Jared Cowen (4)


Western Conference
Forwards (ATOI rank)
Defensemen (ATOI rank)
Goalies
Vancouver



St. Louis



Phoenix



Nashville

Roman Josi (4)

Detroit



Chicago
Marcus Kruger (6)
Andrew Shaw (7)


San Jose



Los Angeles
Dwight King (8)
Slava Voynov (4)



2010-11

Eastern Conference
Forwards (ATOI rank)
Defensemen (ATOI rank)
Goalies
Washington
Marcus Johansson (7)
John Carlson (3)
Michal Neuvirth
Philadelphia


Sergei Bobrovsky
Boston



Pittsburgh



Tampa Bay



Montreal

P.K. Subban (4)

Buffalo
Tyler Ennis (8)


NY Rangers
Derek Stepan (4)



Western Conference
Forwards (ATOI rank)
Defensemen (ATOI rank)
Goalies
Vancouver



San Jose
Logan Couture (6)


Detroit



Anaheim
Brandon McMillan (7)
Cam Fowler (4)

Nashville



Phoenix



Los Angeles



Chicago
Bryan Bickell (9)

Corey Crawford


2009-10

Eastern Conference
Forwards (ATOI rank)
Defensemen (ATOI rank)
Goalies
Washington


Semyon Varlamov
New Jersey



Buffalo

Tyler Myers (1)

Pittsburgh



Ottawa



Boston


Tuukka Rask
Philadelphia



Montreal




Western Conference
Forwards (ATOI rank)
Defensemen (ATOI rank)
Goalies
San Jose



Chicago



Vancouver



Phoenix



Detroit


Jimmy Howard
Los Angeles



Nashville
Colin Wilson (7)


Colorado
T.J. Galiardi (3)
Matt Duchene (5)
Ryan O'Reilly (6)
Brandon Yip (8)




2008-09

Eastern Conference
Forwards (ATOI rank)
Defensemen (ATOI rank)
Goalies
Boston



Washington



New Jersey



Pittsburgh



Philadelphia
Claude Giroux (8)


Carolina



NY Rangers



Montreal




Western Conference
Forwards (ATOI rank)
Defensemen (ATOI rank)
Goalies
San Jose



Detroit



Vancouver



Chicago
Kris Versteeg (6)
Troy Brouwer (8)


Calgary



St. Louis
T.J. Oshie (7)
Patrik Berglund (9)


Columbus
Derick Brassard (9)

Steve Mason
Anaheim
Bobby Ryan (5)
Andrew Ebbett (7)




2007-08

Eastern Conference
Forwards (ATOI rank)
Defensemen (ATOI rank)
Goalies
Montreal
Sergei Kostitsyn (6)

Carey Price
Pittsburgh



Washington
Nicklas Backstrom (3)


New Jersey



NY Rangers
Brandon Dubinsky (7)


Philadelphia



Ottawa



Boston




Western Conference
Forwards (ATOI rank)
Defensemen (ATOI rank)
Goalies
Detroit



San Jose
Torrey Mitchell (6)
Devin Setoguchi (8)


Minnesota



Anaheim



Dallas

Matt Niskanen (4)

Colorado



Calgary



Nashville





2006-07

Eastern Conference
Forwards (ATOI rank)
Defensemen (ATOI rank)
Goalies
Buffalo



New Jersey



Atlanta



Ottawa



Pittsburgh
Evgeni Malkin (3)
Jordan Staal (7)


NY Rangers



Tampa Bay



NY Islanders




Western Conference
Forwards (ATOI rank)
Defensemen (ATOI rank)
Goalies
Detroit



Anaheim
Dustin Penner (9)


Vancouver



Nashville



San Jose
Joe Pavelski (7)
Ryane Clowe (9)
Marc-Edouard Vlasic (2)

Dallas



Minnesota



Calgary





2005-06

Eastern Conference
Forwards
Defensemen
Goalies
Ottawa

Andrej Meszaros (4)
Ray Emery
Carolina


Cam Ward
New Jersey



Buffalo
Thomas Vanek (9)

Ryan Miller
Philadelphia
Mike Richards (8)
Matt Ellison (9)

Antero Niittymaki
NY Rangers
Petr Prucha (7)
Fedor Tyutin (4)
Henrik Lundqvist
Montreal
Chris Higgins (9)


Tampa Bay




Western Conference
Forwards (ATOI rank)
Defensemen (ATOI rank)
Goalies
Detroit

Niklas Kronwall (4)

Dallas
Jussi Jokinen (8)


Calgary

Dion Phaneuf (4)

Nashville



San Jose
Milan Michalek (4)
Steve Bernier (7)


Anaheim
Chris Kunitz (8)
Francois Beauchemin (2)

Colorado
Marek Svatos (8)


Edmonton